Articles of Interest – Monday, February 11, 2019
February 11, 2019
Russian Wheat Export Prices Reached a Four-Year High Last Week
Black Sea Grain – 2/8/2019
The Russian wheat market witnesses further price growth. On average, export prices for Russian wheat closed the week up another $3-4/MT FOB in both deep-water and smaller ports. So, they reached a four-year high, reports UkrAgroConsult. The growth drivers include mostly domestic factors: – dwindling grain inventories. According to the Russian Statistics Service, farming, procuring and processing entities held a combined 38.5 MMT of grain as of January 1, or 16% less than last year.
A Lot to Unpack from Friday’s USDA Reports
AgWeek – 2/10/2019
The U.S. Department of Agriculture had some catching up to do after the government shutdown. There have been a slew of reports coming out over the last week after the reopening of the government allowed for data collection and report preparations. On Friday, some of the key information that the agriculture markets had been waiting for finally came out, and though the market’s response was relatively muted, there is a lot of information that had to be digested in a short amount of time. The first report to pay attention to was the U.S. winter wheat seedings area information. This was of particular interest because of the wet end of planting season in the Central Plains. A dip from a year ago was anticipated, but the extent was not known. In 2018, 32.5 million acres were planted, and Friday’s report showed a small dip to 31.3 million acres for the 2019/20 crop. This was slightly below expectations, but the market was not supported in a big way. Part of that was because the next report on quarterly stock levels, where wheat supplies exceeded market expectations.
EU Wheat Recovers From 2-Month Low as Egyptian Demand Lends Support
Hellenic Shipping News – 2/11/2019
Euronext wheat futures rose on Friday as a second sale of French wheat to Egypt in as many weeks encouraged a technical rebound from a two-month low. However, gains were curbed by stiff competition in the Egyptian tender, as well as general caution in grain markets before a raft of U.S. government crop reports later in the day. March milling wheat, the most active contract on the Paris-based Euronext exchange, was up 0.75 euro, or 0.4 percent, at 202.75 euros ($229.65) a tonne by 1612 GMT.
Recap of Friday’s Major Data Dump for Wheat
Successful Farming – 2/8/2019
The long wait is over. The major data dump on Friday – two months of supply/demand reports, winter wheat plantings, quarterly stocks, and the annual production summary – basically boiled down to barely a blip on price action. For wheat, most of the attention was on plantings. All winter wheat seedings came in at 31.29 million acres, down 1.245 million from last year. Hard red winter wheat acres were 22.2 million, down 723,000 from last year; soft red winter was 5.66 million, down 416,000; and white wheat was 3.44 million, down 100,000 from last year.
Trade Issues May Have Lasting Effects on Wheat
High Plains Journal – 2/8/2019
Current trade negotiations and retaliations could very well wind up having lasting effects on the future wheat trade, cautioned Frayne Olson, director of the Quentin Burdick Center for Cooperatives at North Dakota State University. Olson encouraged growers to pay heed to these issues and keep a seat at the negotiations table as part of his presentation at the 2019 Wheat U, sponsored by BASF and High Plains Journal Jan. 17, in Bismarck, North Dakota.“For the last several months, when I’ve been talking about trade and tariffs and crop marketing, the focus has been on soybeans since they’re most directly impacted by this tariff stuff,” Olson said. “But as to trade issues with wheat, there are some immediate things that may happen in the next few months that will impact wheat markets. But most are longer term issues that will unfold over the next few years.”
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates