U.S Wheat Associates Price Report
December 3, 2018
Friday, November 30, 2018
- Since the last Price Report on Nov. 16, U.S. wheat futures rose supported by strong export sales and rounds of short-covering. A strengthening U.S. dollar limited gains. CBOT December wheat futures closed up 9 cents at $5.16/bu. KCBT ended up 4 cents at $4.86/bu. MGEX added 12 cents to close at $5.83/bu. CBOT December corn traded up 2 cents to $3.66/bu and CBOT January soybeans gained 2 cents to $8.95/bu.
- Continued export demand and limited farmer selling supported export basis for all wheat classes across the United States this week. The Great Lakes – St. Lawrence Seaway System will close for the season on December 31, 2018 and will re-open in March 2018.
- USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 377,100 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2018/19. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2018/19 marketing year were 14.9 million metric tons (MMT), 13% behind last year’s year-to-date total of 17.2 MMT. USDA expects 2018/19 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT.
- On November 26, USDA reported U.S. winter wheat planting is 95% complete, behind the 5-year average of 99%. Winter wheat is 86% emerged, behind the 5-year average of 92%. USDA rated 55% of winter wheat in good to excellent condition, down from 56% the prior week.
- The November 29 U.S. Drought Monitor reported the rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) missed the majority of wheat growing areas. Currently, 86% of Oregon is experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions. Most of Washington wheat growing areas are abnormally dry or experiencing a moderate drought. East of the Mississippi River, timely rain and snow has built up soil moisture surpluses in most areas, which will benefit soft red winter (SRW) when it comes out of dormancy this spring. The forecast expects colder than normal temperatures across the United States for the coming week.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Bolsa de Cereales, reported Argentine wheat harvest is 32% complete, up from 22% complete last week and ahead of last year’s pace.
- FranceAgriMer rated 82% of French wheat in good to excellent condition, unchanged from the week prior. FranceAgriMer reported French common wheat planting is 99% complete, up from 97% the week prior.
- Stratégie Grains forecast 2019/20 European Union (EU) common wheat planted area to 60 million acres (24.7 million hectares), up 6% year over year due to improved wheat prices.
Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices
- The Baltic Index rebounded to 1,281 up from its low point two weeks ago.
- The Dollar Index increased slightly to 96.94 this week, up from 96.46 two weeks prior and the highest point since June 2017.
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates