Friday, November 9, 2018

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  • U.S. wheat futures ended the week down, closing at their lowest point Friday. Continuing increase in the U.S. dollar value helped hold back any upside from USDA’s lower U.S. ending stocks report and decent U.S. export sales. CBOT December wheat futures closed down 5 cents at $5.02. KCBT ended down 9 cents to close at $4.87. MGEX ended down 6 cents to close at $5.73. CBOT December corn traded up 1 cent to $3.72/bu and CBOT January soybeans traded down 4 cents to $8.83/bu.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 661,200 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2018/19. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2018/19 marketing year were 13.76 million metric tons (MMT), 16% behind last year’s year-to-date total of 16.29 MMT. USDA expects 2018/19 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT.
  • On Nov. 2, USDA reported U.S. winter wheat planting is 84% complete, behind the 5-year average of 90%. Winter wheat is 70% emerged, behind the 5-year average of 77%.
  • In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA forecast 2018/19 world wheat production at 1.012 MMT, down 1% from 2017/18. Global trade will drop slightly to 180 MMT, still the second highest on record. Global consumption will set a fifth consecutive record at 743 MMT. World ending stocks will fall to 267 MMT, down 4% year over year if realized. U.S. production totaled 51.3 MMT, 8% above 2017/18.

U.S. Drought Monitor

  • The November 6 U.S. Drought Monitor reported an uneventful week for weather across the nation. Rain in many parts of the country improved moisture deficits including in eastern Montana. Snowfall elsewhere in the Pacific Northwest, the Idaho Panhandle, northwestern Montana and Wyoming led to a reduction in moderate dryness there.

  • Australia’s wheat export forecast continues to be bleak as new USDA supply and demand estimates reduced their expected export numbers an additional 12 percent, down to 11.5 MMT.

Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices

  • The Baltic Index continued its downward trend this week falling to 1231 compared to last week’s closing at 1490.
  • The Dollar Index increased slightly to 96.90 this week from 96.54 last week.

 

Source: U.S. Wheat Associates