Friday, November 2, 2018

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  • U.S. wheat futures ended the week firm, ending higher for the first time in four weeks. CBOT December wheat futures closed down ¾ cents at $5.08. KCBT settled up 3 cents to close at $5.04. MGEX ended up 3 cents to close at $5.80.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 582,500 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2018/19. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2018/19 marketing year were 13.10 million metric tons (MMT), 16% behind last year’s year-to-date total of 15.50 MMT. USDA expects 2018/19 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT.
  • On October 21, USDA reported U.S. winter wheat planting is 78% complete, behind the 5-year average of 83%. Winter wheat is 63% emerged, behind the 5-year average of 67%.
  • In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA forecast 2018/19 world wheat production at 731 MMT, down 4% from 2017/18. Global trade will drop slightly to 180 MMT, still the second highest on record. Global consumption will set a fifth consecutive record at 746 MMT. World ending stocks will fall to 260 MMT, down 5% year over year if realized. U.S. production totaled 51.3 MMT, 8% above 2017/18.

U.S. Drought Monitor

  • The Oct. 30 U.S. Drought Monitor reported several weather events across the country, mainly related to Hurricane Willa which made landfall off Mexico’s Pacific Coast late last week. Storms brought precipiation to the Pacific Northwest, the upper Midwest and the Ohio Valley. Recent moisture in the Plains replenished soil moisture and helped reduce drought severity in the Dakotas. South central Idaho has received above normal rain the last 30 days, improving soil moisture there. Colorado also saw an increase in soil moisture, while Montana remains dry. 


  • Russia’s Agriculture safety watchdog will ask a court to temporarily suspend operations for five grain loading points in Rostov, one of the major exporting regions in Russia. The regulator, Rosselkhoznadzor, had been active in quality checks recently following incidents of rejected cargos of Russian wheat at their port of call.
  • Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, trimmed its expectation of Argentina’s harvest to 19.4 MMT due to weather-related production issues. More wet weather followed by cold weather and frost risk in western and southern parts of the farm belt is forecast.

Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices

  • The Baltic Index was down this week falling to 1490 compared to last week’s closing at 1516.
  • The Dollar Index increased slightly to 96.54 this week from 96.36 last week.

 

Source: U.S. Wheat Associates