October 12, 2018

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  • U.S. wheat futures ended the week mixed with Canadian harvest delays providing support for MGEX. Beneficial rain across the United States limited KCBT gains and pressured CBOT lower. CBOT December wheat futures ended the week down 4 cents at $5.17/bu, KCBT remained unchanged week over week at $5.24/bu and MGEX gained 5 cents to $5.96/bu. CBOT December corn rose 5 cents to $3.74/bu and CBOT January soybeans lost 1 cent to $8.82/bu.
  • Limited farmer selling increased export basis across the United States. Continuing rail problems and congestion in Mexico are tying up trains and increasing nearby Gulf export basis.
  • USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report included net wheat sales of 339,000 metric tons (MT) for marketing year 2018/19. Total known outstanding sales and accumulated exports of all classes of wheat for the 2018/19 marketing year were 11.6 million metric tons (MMT), 18% behind last year’s year-to-date total of 14.2 MMT. USDA expects 2018/19 U.S. wheat exports to reach 27.9 MMT.
  • On October 9, USDA reported U.S. winter wheat planting is 57% complete, slightly behind the 5-year average of 54%. Winter wheat is 30% emerged, ahead of the 5-year average of 28%.
  • In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA forecast 2018/19 world wheat production at 731 MMT, down 4% from 2017/18. Global trade will drop slightly to 180 MMT, still the second highest on record. Global consumption will set a fifth consecutive record at 746 MMT. World ending stocks will fall to 260 MMT, down 5% year over year if realized. U.S. production totaled 51.3 MMT, 8% above 2017/18.

U.S. Drought Monitor

  • The October 11 U.S. Drought Monitor reported heavy to excessive rain fell across much of the southeastern United States, improving soil moisture conditions but causing widespread flooding. The U.S. Northern Plains also received beneficial moisture, but unfortunately, the driest parts of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) were missed. The forecast calls for drier conditions across the United States next week, and above-average temperatures in the PNW.

  • Harvest delays continued in Canada’s western provinces due to snow and wet weather. The Saskatchewan weekly crop report stated winter wheat and durum harvest is unchanged week-over-week at 99% and 84% complete, respectively and spring wheat harvest is 65% complete, up from 58% the week prior. In Alberta, spring wheat harvest is 58% complete, significantly behind last year’s pace.
  • Bolsa de Cereales, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reported harvest began this week in Argentina. Bolsa noted the first yields reported were below the regional averages due to poor soil moisture during grain fill.

Baltic and U.S. Dollar Indices

  • The Baltic Index decreased to 1515, down from 1554 the week prior.
  • The Dollar Index decreased to 95.14 this week, down slightly from 95.62 last week.

 

Source: U.S. Wheat Associates