Articles of Interest – Wednessday, October 10, 2018
October 10, 2018
Rain Too Late for Victorian Wheat Crops
The Weekly Times – 10/10/2018
This is despite rain forecast for many parts of Victoria’s cropping regions yesterday afternoon, with a Bureau of Meteorology forecast of 10-15mm for the Wimmera and 5-10mm in the Mallee. A drought statement issued by the bureau showed September was Australia’s driest start to spring on record, with rainfall below average across the nation, and in particular across the southern mainland. Agriculture Victoria’s soil moisture report for October stated paddocks in Victoria’s southwest were in immediate need of rain to boost crop-yield potential, with soil moisture levels reaching a deficit.
Global Canadian Spring Wheat Prices Up With U.S. Futures
Western Producer – 10/9/2018
Hard red spring wheat bids in Western Canada posted solid gains during the week ended Oct. 5, as gains in the United States futures and concerns over harvest delays in parts of the Prairies provided support. Production issues in Australia and reports that Russia may be curtailing wheat exports were also supportive for North American wheat prices during the week. Average Canada Western Red Spring (13.5% CWRS) wheat prices were up by C$7 to C$10 per tonne over the course of the week, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes).
FranceAgrimer Lifts Forecast For Wheat Exports Outside EU
Successful Farming – 10/10/2018
Farm agency FranceAgriMer raised its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2018/19, confirming its expectation of a rebound in shipments this season. In monthly supply and demand data, FranceAgriMer pegged French soft wheat exports to non-EU destinations at 8.75 million tonnes, up from its initial outlook of 8.5 million last month and compared with 8.1 million in 2017/18.
U.S. Wheat Exports Slowed By Dollar (Or Something Else?)
Farm Lead – 10/9/2018 (opinion)
Grain markets are slightly lower as the complex tries to factor a strong U.S. Dollar weigh on wheat exports, but not so much for corn. Also influencing grain markets today are the wet weather in the U.S. and the continued positive sentiment associated with NAFTA 2.0 – AKA the UMSCA – being completed. You can read our full analysis of how the new NAFTA will impact grain prices here.
Great Expectations from Ethiopia’s Wheat Initiative
Thomas Reuters Foundation – 10/9/2018
Small-holder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa often experience lower yields, and efforts to increase them have sprouted throughout Africa. Many farmers fail to adopt modern inputs or farming techniques that would increase productivity due to several constraints, such as lack of available technology, limited liquidity, high perceived risk, constrained access to information, and poorly functioning output markets. Initiating reforms given this background is a slow process. Any new intervention to address these concerns, however, dramatically raises the expectation of national governments, and undervalues modest but significant gains from such interventions. Ethiopia provides a clear example of agricultural underperformance, as the country’s wheat production has consistently lagged other African nations. In 2012, Ethiopia’s wheat yields were 29 percent below neighboring Kenya, 13 percent below the African average, and 32 percent below the global average.
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates