Kansas Association of Wheat Growers

July 9 Dan Maltby Marketing Newsletter

Hello Kansas Wheat.

Additional tariffs on imported Chinese goods were put into effect Friday, and China retaliated with a 25% import duty on USA soybeans. In an interesting old-school “buy the fact” maneuver, Nov beans (shown here) closed almost 40c/bu higher.

Have we weathered the worst of it? Let’s go with a “maybe”.

The 11-week closing futures table on the next page indicates Trading Funds are quite short soybeans, as we’ve seen red numbers 7 of the past 11 weeks, and corn, as we saw red numbers 4 weeks consecutively, and they might be short some wheat too.

BUT…beans, corn, nor wheat set a new red number this week.

I’m leaning towards, for now, finally, the Trade Wars can go to the back burner.
That doesn’t mean the Bear Slide is over. USA weather is generally good-to-great, and export sales need to recover, and who knows, this Trade War could go into Round 3 (I’m not sure we’re done with Canada and Mexico…), but for now… I think the grain markets are due for a breather.

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Source: Kansas Association of Wheat Growers