Kansas Association of Wheat Growers

Hello Kansas Wheat.


I think the short-covering bounce is bumping into overhead resistance, and as it’s too early to legitimately be super long wheat futures because of “too dry, too cold, too something…” I look for some consolidation this week. Supporting that belief is the USDA will issue their January WASDE update Friday, so it’s easy for me to see a week of marking time.

Possibly a bit of a cooler to the weather rally…possibly, is this map calling for a quarter inch in Nebraska and much of Kansas wheat country:

Offsetting that will be warmer than average temps, after last week’s cooler than average temps…

Finally, some traders expect a “rebalancing” by Index Funds but other traders firmly believe we already saw a major portion of it. I personally am not betting on a big “rebalancing rally”. Maybe I’m wrong, and we’ll rock on upward through resistance, but I don’t think the timing is right for it.

Two months from now…anything could happen. This week, I expect nothing to happen.


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Source: Kansas Association of Wheat Growers