I hope your Thanksgiving was great! Family, food, football…These 3 F’s probably define the true modern-day “meaning” of the USA Thanksgiving holidays.
Markets did very little the past week, until Friday, in a lightly attended, shortened session which closed at noon, and wheat dropped another 6c. Option expiration wasn’t a factor. New fundamental inputs were lacking, although one set of inputs we did see was USA weekly export sales, which were borderline horrible.
Buyers were on the sidelines, but the Algorithms were plugged in, and trading, and willing to sell on new closing weekly weakness, as they do normally.
This is the weekly closing futures table. It shows closing prices from Friday’s shortened session:
New red numbers in KC wheat, Chgo wheat, and Dec17 corn. New red numbers mean new 11-week closing lows, and Momentum Funds will almost always sell more (add to an existing short position) on red Fridays.
Markets significantly rally about every 3 years. The problem is twofold: 1., trying to catch that rally is much more difficult than it would seem, and 2., that rally may not last very long.
If a guy didn’t sell it all exactly on the 4th of July this year, he missed his “once in every 3-years” rally shot. Which means he’s forced to wait until the next one, or sell it when he needs the cash, and both of those are difficult situations.
Source: Kansas Association of Wheat Growers