Kansas Association of Wheat Growers

 October 30 Dan Maltby Marketing Newsletter

Fundamentally friendly inputs are hard to find. If there’s a story from reduced USA HRW wheat acreage, we won’t really see it until next spring, and will probably need reduced spring wheat acres to go with it, or a killer drought somewhere. Next spring is a long way away. In the meantime, the path of least resistance is…likely nowhere. USA wheat exports are pretty good, but there is NO way we will be cheaper than Russian wheat, as they have so much the last thing they will let happen is to start losing export share.

SO, with fall harvest not quite finished, and South American planting gaining momentum, we’re faced with a heavy 11-week closing futures table. Trading and Momentum Funds are short, but maybe unable to convincingly build a case for sharply lower markets. Thus, this week, we see 2 to 4c moves were common. No new red numbers, nor new blue numbers either.

 

 

A couple weeks ago I spent some time showing how the old dates roll off the table, and that in effect changes the color of some of the numbers. If a blue number rolls off, another blue number must be created.

We see that happening in wheat, and interestingly in corn. This week’s table shows the 11-week closing Friday high in Z corn is the 08/18 close of $3.66 (last week’s table had $3.66 as a red number…that’s how it goes.)

Here’s what is important: Next week’s table will not show the 08/18 week anymore. So can you tell me what will be the new blue Dec corn number?

 

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Source: Kansas Association of Wheat Growers