February 20 Dan Maltby Marketing Newsletter 

 

Hello Kansas Wheat.

 

Markets are closed today, Monday, 2/20/17 for President’s Day.
Thursday’s stunning reversal of the bullish upward price thrust didn’t feel like it was finished Friday…
This is KC wheat, July17; the recent uptrends, shown by the black trendlines, have not been violated yet, but the chart suggests it could drop another 20c (30?) without too much trouble.

 

The “good news” …is prices remain above the 200-day moving average, currently about $4.72…
The “bad news” is $4.85 will be tough resistance, and it’s going to take a weekly close above that level to bring in new buy-stops.
Technically, I suspect the short-covering phase has about ran its course, and the market awaits new inputs. Which could be bullish, or bearish.
Fundamentally, has anything changed?
Export snarls, mainly in the PNW, haven’t improved much, and that is indeed a bit of a drag, creating some concerns that the USDA will be forced to lower their USA export projection.
And of course, we’d better look at the weather, and there, we see clearly, an inch of moisture in Oklahoma and much of Texas last week goes a long way…

 

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Source: Kansas Association of Wheat Growers